In the complex web of global politics, the European Union (EU) is at a critical juncture as it considers its strategic direction and possible eastward enlargement. These considerations have taken on added urgency following Russia's increased military involvement in Ukraine, an event that has not only tested the resilience of Ukrainian sovereignty but also the unity and strategic resolve of the European Union. The European Council's decision to grant candidate status to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova on 23 June 2022 is a significant gesture of solidarity and a firm stand against unjustified aggression, sending a strong signal of hope to these nations in the midst of their turbulent circumstances.
Figure 1. Current Candidate Situation (Fleck 2022)
However, that is very likely to bring out the many problems linked to EU enlargement, which are most often denoted as "enlargement fatigue". This term describes the ever-increasing reluctance of some member states of the European Union to accept further enlargements, in part due to the perceived crisis in the credibility of the enlargement policy of the EU. Meanwhile, the candidate countries are really working very hard with their own version of fatigue, where the EU throws at them the accession criteria. This exacting accession criteria put into doubt their membership.
The need for a strategic, coordinated approach to EU enlargement has seldom been more overt. For the countries of the Western Balkans, membership of the EU would be a guarantor of stability and, together with access to the largest market in the world, would give them space for economic reform. Enlargement is a strategic imperative of the EU in opening up new markets and winning the geopolitical influence in regions that are hugely important for the security and economic prosperity of the Union. The possible integration of Ukraine and Georgia presents deeper involvement towards good governance, economic stability, and promotion of democratic values. This could expand the extension of EU influence and its ideals beyond its borders.
Here is where Nikita Kaveshnikov's "extended partial membership strategy" is offered; through an approach to full integration that must be gradual, step-by-step, and flexible. Candidate countries would then gradually harmonise with EU standards, participating in decision-making processes en route, but with no full voting rights at the beginning. That is to say, the process aimed at reducing the risks involved in the admission procedure and the fostering of an even deeper, more meaningful cooperation of the EU, with its candidate countries.
However, reactions to this proposed strategy have been mixed. Candidate countries see it as not only a unique opportunity but also a challenge that has to be very wisely dealt with through the integration criteria demanding proper integration. The strategy may be a pragmatic compromise so that further enlargement may be possible to EU Member States who are otherwise skeptical of further enlargement of the EU.
On the other hand, geopolitical rivals like Russia are likely to view any EU enlargement with suspicion, since this will add to the complication that is already being brought up by the Union's enlargement efforts. One such time may be noted during the adoption of the Enlargement Partial Membership Strategy, which reconciled the needs of growth with the practicalities of integration for the EU. This move seems both pragmatic in a possible solution to the current impasse and renewing the EU commitment towards fostering stability, democratic governance, and prosperity on the continent.
As the EU stands at this historic crossroads, decisions to be taken now will impact the geopolitical continent landscape indelibly, underlining the importance of a strategic, inclusive, and visionary approach to enlargement. This also means a deep rethink in the framework of the internal processes of the EU and a reformist will from its part to make a more smooth integration process for the candidate countries.
This would entail the conduct of a review of existing policies and procedures in the light of the adaptability and responsivity required by the evolutions taking place in the geopolitical context. So, the current EU member states and other standing as candidates need to fulfill the required level of cooperation and dialogue to develop a sense of commonness in purpose and mutual benefit. This strategy also broadens the discourse on the EU's global role and its relations with other major powers. A more blurred vision: The EU should define its attitude and relation vis-à-vis global players, including the United States, China, or Russia, together with its possible further enlargement.
This issue, the process of enlargement, is not only becoming an internal issue, but something of a strategic nature and the grounds for it with global geopolitical repercussions. In sum, the approach to the enlarged partial membership is nuanced and pragmatic with the aspirations of the candidate country seeking to square with the strategic goals of the EU. At this juncture, the decisions that the EU will make will define it and cast a shadow on its future.
留言